12/14/10 - The AF&PA released preliminary Nov printing & writing shipment data. Overall shipments fell 2.2% y/y, a bit less than the 4.2% erosion last month despite a much tougher comp. Shipments are up 5.8% ytd. Shipments fell 7.2% m/m. Once again uncoated free sheet was the laggard. Uncoated groundwood showed the strongest shipment trend, but also faced a materially easier comp vs other three grades.
Uncoated free shipments fell 7.2% y/y (-2.5% ytd), similar to the 7.5% drop last month. Nov comp was 870bp tougher. Trend implies lowest shipments in 17+ years. Coated free shipments rose 2.9% y/y (+17.7% ytd), similar to Oct trend. Again Nov comp was much tougher (>1300bp). Coated groundwood shipments fell 0.6% y/y (+12.2% ytd), much less than the 7.4% drop last month. The Nov comp was c2000bp tougher. Uncoated groundwood shipments rose 9.8% y/y (+15.5% ytd), well above the printing & writing average and up from 5.3% growth in Oct. The comp was a comparatively modest 250bp tougher m/m. But UGW comp was 1700bp easier than next easiest grade (UCFS).