Adobe Predicts Record $91 Billion in Sales This Holiday Season

Mobile Visits Exceed Desktop Visits, but Sales Fall Short; Most Desired Gifts Include VR Devices, Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels

Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its 2016 Digital Insights Shopping Predictions for the upcoming holiday season. The breadth of data Adobe analyzes has allowed the company to successfully predict consumer spending within two percent in previous years, the most accurate in the industry. Adobe expects an extended holiday season with consumers shopping much earlier and later in the season. For the first time, 53 consecutive days (57 calendar days in total) will exceed $1 billion in online sales, versus 31 consecutive days last year, a 71 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase. Cyber Monday is expected to be the largest online shopping day of all time, generating $3.36 billion in sales with 9.4 percent growth. Sales on Thanksgiving Day will increase 15.6 percent YoY to $2 billion, but not reach the 25 percent YoY increase of 2015. Black Friday will grow 11.3 percent YoY (14.3 percent in 2015) to $3.05 billion.

The extended season will lead to an eleven percent ($9.1 billion) increase in online sales to a total of $91.6 billion. Large retailers* are expected to account for the bulk of the growth, with an average growth rate of 16.6 percent compared to smaller retailers at seven percent. For the average retailer, five percent of consumers are expected to drive 35 percent ($38.5 billion) of all online sales while one percent of product SKUs will account for 74 percent of sales. For the first time mobile devices will exceed desktops in shopping visits, 53 versus 47 percent respectively. However, mobile shopping visits will only account for 34 percent of sales, a 19 percent gap between visits and purchases (see separate press release), likely a consequence of poor mobile shopping experiences. In addition, Adobe data shows that total organic web traffic in North America is stalling with only 0.1 percent growth over the past 42 months (see separate press release).

“We expect to see a five percent spike in online shopping in early November and a record 24 percent increase in the last two weeks of December,” said Mickey Mericle, vice president, Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. “‘Click and collect,’ faster shipping and retail promotions starting earlier than ever are all contributing to the extended shopping season. Despite the uptick in sales we expect to see slower growth in total online sales this year.”

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