Current Optimism for Crude Oil Prices is Exaggerated, say Analysts

Crude oil prices continue to inch up supported by increased investor interest in the commodity amid reports of a slowdown in US oil production, however, analysts warn that weak fundamentals for oil remain intact.

“We believe the optimism among investors vis-à-vis oil is exaggerated. This has given rise to considerable correction potential which could lead to a sharp fall in prices at any time,” said a note from Commerzbank Corporates & Markets.

Brent crude oil traded close to $59 per barrel on Monday, as many investors increase their bets on higher prices, with their net long positions hitting highest level since August 2014.

“Speculative market participants appear to be calling for a bottom in oil prices,” ANZ said in a note, to

Oil prices fell sharply last week following a preliminary agreement between Iran and six world powers on Tehran’s nuclear programme, which initially raised concerns over Iranian oil exports flooding the oversupplied market. However, oil prices later rebounded on the expectations that oil exports from Iran will be delayed.

“Even if a final deal is reached, Iran is unlikely to be able to significantly ramp up its exports until 2016 at the earliest,” said Capital Economics in a note.

Though the oil exports from Iran will not start flowing into the global markets immediately, the supply from the country could add 1 million barrels per day to the already over-supplied market once the sanctions are eased.
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