Key Currency Exchange Rates for Friday, 10/2/20

“For the first time since March and April truck tonnage contracted for two consecutive months,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Tonnage fell 1.8% in November, bringing the two-month total decrease to 2.9%, pushing tonnage to its lowest level since January 2024. Sluggishness in factory output continues to weigh on freight volumes, but another drag on the index has been fleet growth at private carriers, which is holding back how much freight is flowing to for-hire carriers.” In December, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 111.3 compared with 112.6 in November. The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, was down 3.2% from the same month last year. The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 108.8 in December, 0.9% below November. The seasonally adjusted decrease follows a sequential 1.8% drop in November, which was revised up from the December 24 press release.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.1% in June after increasing 1.2% in May. In June, the index equaled 116.5 (2015=100) compared with 114.1 in May. “While the tonnage index increased in both May and June, it remains in recession territory,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The index continues to fall from a year earlier and is off 1.9% from its recent peak in September 2022. A multitude of factors have caused a recession in freight, including stagnant consumer spending on goods, lower home construction, falling factory output, and shippers consolidating freight into fewer shipments compared with the frenzy during the goods buying spree at the height of the pandemic. However, the magnitude of the year-over-year declines is improving, perhaps pointing to a bottom in the freight market.” Compared with June 2022, the SA index decreased 0.8%, which was the fourth straight year-over-year decrease. In May, the index was down 2.4% from a year earlier.

Futures were little changed in New York after rising 4.7 percent last week. The curbs have contributed to stability in the market and should remain, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said Saturday. Yet, Brent crude at $70 a barrel may be giving fresh stimulus to U.S. shale-oil drillers to boost output, according to the International Energy Agency. Oil has extended gains after a second annual advance as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies curb supply to drain a global glut. Though they have said the historic deal will run until the end of this year, OPEC is “very likely to cut short” the pact if markets become balanced, JP Morgan Securities said in a report. Click Read More below for additional information.