Oil Near $52 as OPEC Touts Record Compliance, Rig Count Drops

December futures were little-changed in New York. OPEC and its partners including Russia achieved a record-high level of compliance to output cuts during September, according to a statement on Saturday. In the U.S., drillers reduced the rig count for a third week to the lowest since June, according to Baker Hughes.

Oil is holding a second week of gains after the strongest signal yet that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will extend supply curbs until the end of 2018. Tensions in Iraq, where the army has been retaking areas around Kirkuk from Kurdish forces, also helped to support prices the past week as pipeline flows from the region were disrupted.

“The lower U.S. rig count number, the OPEC compliance number and the geopolitical headlines from northern Iraq and Iran on sanctions have helped futures higher,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S said. “But there are signs the market could be weakening with the seasonal refinery demand slowdown.”

One sign that demand could be weakening is the Brent market structure known as backwardation — when prompt prices are more expensive than later-dated futures — which isn’t as strong as a month ago, said Hansen.

Compliance with the OPEC-led cuts was 120 percent last month, according to the group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. Commercial oil stocks in members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell further in the month and now stand at 159 million barrels above the five-year average, the JMMC said.
more at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/oil-extends-gains-as-opec-says-all-options-open-on-re-balancing

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Oil Gains as OPEC Said to Work on Exit Plan Alongside Extension

Oil is holding above $50 a barrel as speculation mounts that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will prolong supply curbs to prevent the market returning to surplus next year. At the same time, there are signs that growth in U.S. shale oil, which has kept a lid on prices, may be slowing as drilling declines. “The market will probably take it positively if OPEC can explain their thinking on how it works when they’re not voluntarily holding back oil from the market anymore,” Torbjorn Kjus, analyst at DNB Markets said. “There’s a fear in the market that when the deal runs out, then it’s every man for himself again, and that’s not what they’re thinking.” Click Read More below for additional information.
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