Morgan Stanley now sees oil mostly falling through 2016, compared with a previous outlook for prices to rise each quarter, analysts including Adam Longson said in a report Thursday. Brent crude is expected to average $29 a barrel in the three months to December, compared with an estimate for $59 in a Jan. 18 note. “Weaker-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected supply, rising inventories and increased hedging incentives all work to delay rebalancing, and slow the rise in prices immediately thereafter,” Longson wrote in the Feb. 4 report.
Crude oil gained for the first time in four days as the dollar weakened and OPEC warned that prices may surge without new investment in production.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined from the highest level on record, boosting oil’s investment appeal. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister met with Russian and Norway officials to discuss market stability, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said Monday that oil may jump to $200 a barrel without adequate long-term investment.
“The dollar is definitely a factor that seems to be giving the market some support,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by phone. “The Saudis are going back to some non-OPEC producers. That may be a sign that they are willing to stabilize the prices.”
Oil slumped almost 50 percent last year as the U.S. pumped crude at the fastest rate in more than three decades and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries resisted calls to reduce output. Prices may drop to $30 a barrel, Gary Cohn, the president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview with CNBC on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose $1.08, or 2.4 percent, to end at $46.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell to $45.15 on Monday, the lowest close since March 2009. The volume of all futures traded was 17 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.