Key Currency Exchange Rates for Friday, 2/24/23

The market “looks a lot more bullish than it did three or four months ago,” said James Williams, president of London, Arkansas-based energy researcher WTRG Economics. The stockpile declines aren’t surprising since “refinery utilization is coming down this time of year because it’s turnaround season,” he said. Nonetheless, he predicted prices will rally again Wednesday if the government confirms the drops. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to extend supply cuts beyond their March expiration date, which has supported oil above the key $50-a-barrel psychological threshold. In addition, oil demand is proving more resilient than some expected, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih said in Riyadh. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded futures contracts, probably declined by 500,000 barrels, according to a separate forecast compiled by Bloomberg. A Bloomberg survey estimated that U.S crude stockpiles slid by 3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles probably rose by 1.7 million barrels. The API report also showed crude stockpiles rose by 519,000 barrels, while Cushing supplies fell by 55,000 barrels last week. A draw at Cushing would be the first since August if the Energy Information Administration confirms it in its data release on Wednesday. Click Read More below for additional information.

Futures climbed as much as 1.3 percent in New York after declining 0.9 percent Tuesday. Inventories expanded by 1.44 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report. That’s less than half the projected 3.9 million-barrel increase the government is forecast to report Wednesday. Some U.S. refiners are delaying maintenance to take advantage of strong margins. While oil has rebounded the past two weeks, crude in the U.S. has struggled to hold above $50 a barrel as prices beyond that level make some shale profitable and boost supply. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are said to be discussing extending by more than three months the output cuts that expire in March. Iraq, the group’s second-biggest producer, has said production should be reduced by an additional 1 percent to help rebalance the market. Click Read More below for additional detail.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.2% in July after falling 2% in June. In July, the index equaled 109.8 (2015=100) compared with 111.1 in June. “Softness in tonnage over the last few months is due more to supply constraints, rather than a big drop in freight volumes,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Not only are there broader supply chain issues, like semiconductors, holding tonnage back, but there are also industry specific difficulties, including the driver shortage and lack of equipment. For-hire truckload carriers are operating fewer trucks than a year earlier. It is difficult to haul significantly more freight with fewer trucks and drivers. “In addition to these supply issues, retail sales and housing starts, both large drivers of truck freight, retreated in July, although both rose on a year-over-year basis,” he said. June’s reading was revised down to -2% from our July 20 press release. Compared with July 2020, the SA index fell 2.9%, which was the first year-over-year drop since March. In June, the index was flat from a year earlier. Year-to-date, compared with the same seven months in 2020, tonnage is down 0.2%.