Key Currency Exchange Rates for Friday, 12/8/23

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 3.7% in November after falling 5% in October. In November, the index equaled 112.2 (2015=100) compared with 108.3 in October. “The 2020 seesaw pattern continued in November as typical seasonality is not holding this year,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “It was a nice gain, but the rebound was not enough to make up for October’s drop. Robust retail freight, helped by consumer spending, especially e-commerce, and very lean inventories helped truck tonnage last month. Strong single-family housing starts are also aiding freight tonnage, but lackluster restaurant, manufacturing and energy sectors remain a drag. I expect these softer industries to benefit from widespread COVID-19 vaccinations in 2021.” October’s decrease was revised up to 5% from our November 24 press release.

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after falling nearly 2 percent in the previous session, but growing U.S. production and expectations of higher OPEC supplies continue to weigh on sentiment. Over the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC Arab oil ministers agreed on the need for continued cooperation to balance global supply, Kuwait's state news agency KUNA reported. In March, U.S. crude output rose to 10.47 million barrels per day, the highest on record, according to a monthly report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Click Read More below for additional information.

Trucking activity in the United States slipped in March, giving back a little more than half of the gain from February. Specifically, truck freight tonnage decreased 1.5% after surging 2.8% in February, according to the American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index. Solid manufacturing output in March, led by robust auto production, likely helped truck freight tonnage not fall more after a very strong February,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Overall in the first quarter, tonnage increased marginally from both the fourth and first quarters of 2024. While the gains were not strong at half a percent and less, it was the first time that the quarterly average increased both sequentially and from a year earlier in two years. That tells me that the freight market did in fact turn around in the first three months of the year despite an uncertain outlook.” In March, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 113.4, down from 115.1 in February. The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, was up 0.2% from the same month last year, the third straight year-over-year increase, which hasn’t happened since late 2022 and early 2023. The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 114.6 in March, 9.5% above February’s reading of 104.7.