AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report for Friday, 1/27/23

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 2% in March after increasing 4% in February. In March, the index equaled 113.4 (2015=100) compared with 115.7 in February. “Tonnage in March suggests that truck freight volumes remain lackluster, and it is clear the truck freight recession continued through the first quarter,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “In the first three months of 2024, ATA’s tonnage index contracted 0.8% from the previous quarter and declined 2.4% from a year earlier, highlighting ongoing challenges the industry is navigating.” February’s increase was revised down slightly from our March 19 press release.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.3% in July after declining 1.8% in June. In July, the index equaled 113.7 (2015=100) compared with 113.3 in June. “While July wasn’t a strong month, we see continued evidence that the truck freight market is likely turning a corner, albeit slowly,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Some of July’s small gain was likely due to strong import activity, especially at West Coast seaports. Decent retail sales and factory output growing slightly from a year earlier also helped truck tonnage last month.” June’s decrease was revised down from our July 23 press release. Compared with July 2023, the index decreased 0.9%. In June, the index was down 0.6% from a year earlier.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.1% in June after increasing 1.2% in May. In June, the index equaled 116.5 (2015=100) compared with 114.1 in May. “While the tonnage index increased in both May and June, it remains in recession territory,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The index continues to fall from a year earlier and is off 1.9% from its recent peak in September 2022. A multitude of factors have caused a recession in freight, including stagnant consumer spending on goods, lower home construction, falling factory output, and shippers consolidating freight into fewer shipments compared with the frenzy during the goods buying spree at the height of the pandemic. However, the magnitude of the year-over-year declines is improving, perhaps pointing to a bottom in the freight market.” Compared with June 2022, the SA index decreased 0.8%, which was the fourth straight year-over-year decrease. In May, the index was down 2.4% from a year earlier.