AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report for Friday, 4/14/23

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 4.5% in February after rising 1.8% in January. In February, the index equaled 110 (2015=100) compared with 115.2 in January. “February’s drop was exacerbated, perhaps completely caused, by the severe winter weather that impacted much of the country during the month,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Many other economic indicators were also soft in February due to the bad storms, but I continue to expect a nice climb up for the economy and truck freight as economic stimulus checks are spent and more people are vaccinated.” January’s gain was revised up slightly to 1.8% from our February 23 press release. Compared with February 2020, the SA index fell 5.9%, which was preceded by a 1.6% year-over-year decline in January. In 2020, the index was 4% below the 2019 average.

Oil is holding above $50 a barrel as speculation mounts that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will prolong supply curbs to prevent the market returning to surplus next year. At the same time, there are signs that growth in U.S. shale oil, which has kept a lid on prices, may be slowing as drilling declines. “The market will probably take it positively if OPEC can explain their thinking on how it works when they’re not voluntarily holding back oil from the market anymore,” Torbjorn Kjus, analyst at DNB Markets said. “There’s a fear in the market that when the deal runs out, then it’s every man for himself again, and that’s not what they’re thinking.” Click Read More below for additional information.

US crude oil prices have slipped back after strong gains as the White House prepared to announce a decision on whether it will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Iran’s oil production has bounced back to nearly 4m barrels a day since world powers eased sanctions over its nuclear programme. Reimposing sanctions could reduce Iranian oil exports by 200,000-300,000 barrels a day, according to RBC Capital Markets. Click Read More below for additional information.