AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report for Friday, 3/16/18

Futures in New York are up 3.7 percent this month, even after a 1 percent drop on Monday, following data that showed an increase in U.S. drilling activity. A potential withdrawal in May by U.S. President Donald Trump from a 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and Iran would reimpose sanctions on the Middle Eastern producer and curb its exports. Meanwhile, OPEC is trimming output even after concluding it has cleared 97 percent of the surplus that has weighed on prices. “Obviously the rig count that came on Friday was quite bearish,” says Torbjorn Kjus, chief oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA. “There’s a lot of profit in the books here for the non-commercials. You shouldn’t be surprised if there’s a $5 flush out and some profit taking.” In the U.S., working oil rigs rose by five last week to 825, the highest level since March 2015, according to data from Baker Hughes. Click Read More below for additional information.

Oil is heading for the longest run of weekly gains since October 2016 as global supplies tighten and on signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will extend output curbs past the end of March. Saudi Arabia on Thursday advised its nationals to leave Lebanon, fueling fears of a confrontation with Iran in a country long known for being a battleground for proxy wars in the Middle East. “Geopolitical risks have taken center stage in the oil market again,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “The rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have raised concerns in the oil market of an imminent supply disruption.” Saudi Arabia said it plans to cut crude exports to all the regions it ships to next month. Shipments will fall by 120,000 barrels a day in December from November, a spokesman for the Energy Ministry said, without specifying what those levels would be. Bloomberg calculations from vessel-tracking data estimated flows in October at 6.989 million a day. Click Read More below for additional information.

Crude oil prices steadied near multi-year highs on Wednesday, even as concerns over geopolitical tensions began to ease, as supply cut efforts by global oil producers continued to support the commodity. Oil prices had climbed amid Iranian protests, marking the biggest challenge to the country's clerical leadership since 2009. However, the protests were showing no signs of impacting Iran's oil production. Crude prices continued to be supported by production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia. The producers agreed in December to extend current oil output cuts until the end of 2018. Click Read More below for additional information.