Attacks on cargo ships in Red Sea causing volatility in supply chains

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.5 percent, following a 1.7 percent increase last week, when they hit a three-year high. Rigs drilling for crude fell by five to 742 in the seven days ended Jan. 5, according to Baker Hughes data Friday. Hedge funds retreated from the most bullish stance on WTI in 10 months during the week ended Jan. 2. “A drop in active oil rigs is usually bullish for oil prices,” said Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. Oil had its strongest opening week for any year since 2013 as U.S. stockpiles continue to shrink. Click Read More below for additional information.

The market “looks a lot more bullish than it did three or four months ago,” said James Williams, president of London, Arkansas-based energy researcher WTRG Economics. The stockpile declines aren’t surprising since “refinery utilization is coming down this time of year because it’s turnaround season,” he said. Nonetheless, he predicted prices will rally again Wednesday if the government confirms the drops. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to extend supply cuts beyond their March expiration date, which has supported oil above the key $50-a-barrel psychological threshold. In addition, oil demand is proving more resilient than some expected, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih said in Riyadh. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded futures contracts, probably declined by 500,000 barrels, according to a separate forecast compiled by Bloomberg. A Bloomberg survey estimated that U.S crude stockpiles slid by 3 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles probably rose by 1.7 million barrels. The API report also showed crude stockpiles rose by 519,000 barrels, while Cushing supplies fell by 55,000 barrels last week. A draw at Cushing would be the first since August if the Energy Information Administration confirms it in its data release on Wednesday. Click Read More below for additional information.

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 1.5% in June after falling 1% in May. In June, the index equaled 111.6 (2015=100) compared with 113.3 in May. “Tonnage has definitely flattened out, on average, over the last six to nine months,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The good news is that it remains slightly above 2020 levels. “Supply chain issues are likely putting some downward pressure on tonnage,” he said. “But it is also likely that tonnage isn’t growing as much as it could because of industry-specific supply constraints. This index is dominated by contract freight, and the for-hire truckload carriers have seen their tractor counts fall because they are having difficulty finding qualified drivers. It is difficult to move more tonnage with less equipment, which is why we are seeing strong volumes in the spot market as shippers scramble to get loads moved.”