Oil Slides as IEA Grows Less Confident on Global Rebalancing

Futures slipped 0.6 percent. The agency boosted estimates for global demand growth but said that stockpiles don’t appear to be declining as quickly as expected as rising OPEC production threatens the rebalancing process. While U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.56 million barrels last week — the most since September — the IEA said total fuel stocks in developed countries appear to have grown in the first half.

Oil remains in a bear market on concern rising global supply will offset curbs by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners including Russia. OPEC’s first assessment of world markets in 2018 suggested that its current output of 32.6 million barrels a day — swollen by a recovery in Libya and Nigeria that are exempt from the cuts — will be too high.

“Given how the rebalancing process appears to be taking its time, it will be difficult to avoid having the discussion with Libya and Nigeria of eventually capping their output, provided of course the gains in the two countries are sustained,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London.

West Texas Intermediate for August delivery fell 27 cents to $45.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:51 a.m. in London. Total volume traded was about 4 percent above the 100-day average. Prices gained 45 cents to $45.49 on Wednesday.

Brent for September settlement dropped 32 cents to $47.42 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices advanced 22 cents, or 0.5 percent, to close at $47.74 on Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.02 to September WTI.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/oil-holds-gains-near-45-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-extend-decline

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Oil Near $52 as OPEC Touts Record Compliance, Rig Count Drops

December futures were little-changed in New York. OPEC and its partners including Russia achieved a record-high level of compliance to output cuts during September, according to a statement on Saturday. In the U.S., drillers reduced the rig count for a third week to the lowest since June, according to Baker Hughes. “The lower U.S. rig count number, the OPEC compliance number and the geopolitical headlines from northern Iraq and Iran on sanctions have helped futures higher,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S said. “But there are signs the market could be weakening with the seasonal refinery demand slowdown.” One sign that demand could be weakening is the Brent market structure known as backwardation -- when prompt prices are more expensive than later-dated futures -- which isn’t as strong as a month ago, said Hansen. Click Read More below for additional information.

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